Solid line = floor (spellings that unambiguously belong to the group). Shaded band up to the dashed edge = ceiling (the most it could reach if every ambiguous spelling counted here).
Shepherd has been climbing in recent years. All-time it's been given to 11,534 U.S. babies, the 575th most common name by sound today, at an all-time high of 1,684 in 2025.
By sound, Shepherd also includes the spellings Shepard.