How to read the band →
Solid line = floor (spellings that unambiguously belong to the group). Shaded band up to the dashed edge = ceiling (the most it could reach if every ambiguous spelling counted here).
Chance
Chance is now well below its former popularity. All-time it's been given to 56,010 U.S. babies, the 748th most common name by sound today, peaking at 2,293 in 1996, with 733 in 2025.
Chance has no common alternate spellings by sound.
Rising
Source: U.S. Social Security Administration, “National data” baby-names files (1880–2025).